Comments on: Norman Wood’s Prediction for the 2011 New Zealand Election https://www.normanwood.net/2011/11/norman-woods-prediction-for-the-2011-new-zealand-election/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=norman-woods-prediction-for-the-2011-new-zealand-election The travels, activities and thoughts of the Managing Director Mon, 03 Sep 2012 04:50:34 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5 By: norman https://www.normanwood.net/2011/11/norman-woods-prediction-for-the-2011-new-zealand-election/#comment-61 norman Sun, 27 Nov 2011 07:16:09 +0000 http://www.normanwood.net/2011/11/norman-woods-prediction-for-the-2011-new-zealand-election/#comment-61 Looks like you were more on the ball with Ohariu and Epsom. Banks result surprised me. So did National polling so high. I got most of the other parties correct, although maybe you were right about the Greens, their support is very shaky, but still a good result with 11%

]]> By: norman https://www.normanwood.net/2011/11/norman-woods-prediction-for-the-2011-new-zealand-election/#comment-60 norman Sun, 27 Nov 2011 07:13:24 +0000 http://www.normanwood.net/2011/11/norman-woods-prediction-for-the-2011-new-zealand-election/#comment-60 Sorry Richard posted instead of replied. See the comment below for the response to your question.

]]> By: norman https://www.normanwood.net/2011/11/norman-woods-prediction-for-the-2011-new-zealand-election/#comment-59 norman Sun, 27 Nov 2011 07:12:00 +0000 http://www.normanwood.net/2011/11/norman-woods-prediction-for-the-2011-new-zealand-election/#comment-59 Well, lets just say that National did better than I was expecting at 48% (I predicted 42%, polls 51%), Labour 27% (I predicted 26%, polls 26%), Greens 11% (I predicted 15%, polls 13%), NZ First 7% (I predicted 5%, polls 4%). The other parties were about what the polls and I thought. Other than the Conservatives that I thought were a coming force, they didn’t do as well in Rodney as I thought, although I didn’t think they would win either. I do believe John Key had a cup of tea with the wrong person, Colin Craig winning Rodney would have given him 3 to 4 extra seats. I also noticed that TVNZ didn’t even have a graphic for the Conservatives at the bottom of the screen. I’m not a Conservative supporter, but it seems a bit arrogant to discount them like everyone seems, they were the next highest after NZ First, and more than ACT, Maori, United Future and Mana, all these other parties got MPs and far greater coverage.

]]> By: Richard https://www.normanwood.net/2011/11/norman-woods-prediction-for-the-2011-new-zealand-election/#comment-56 Richard Sat, 26 Nov 2011 10:48:56 +0000 http://www.normanwood.net/2011/11/norman-woods-prediction-for-the-2011-new-zealand-election/#comment-56 So how were your predictions Norm? Give us an honest summary not the political bullshit one!

]]> By: JV https://www.normanwood.net/2011/11/norman-woods-prediction-for-the-2011-new-zealand-election/#comment-55 JV Fri, 25 Nov 2011 21:14:44 +0000 http://www.normanwood.net/2011/11/norman-woods-prediction-for-the-2011-new-zealand-election/#comment-55 Interesting, very interesting. I’d put Ohariu and Epsom too close to call. In the past, Hyde has polled well below 50% but come through on the night.

I also agree National will not get as high as they are polling, and I think they know that.

I think the Greens will get into double digits. but not much more. I’ve noticed a backlash from Green supporters worried that they may support National in some way. Given Russel Norman says “highly unlikely” they will support National, for many, that’s not definitive enough. They could also be a victim of their own high polling. “In the past I’ve voted Green, but Labour need my support more now.”

Jeffrey

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